Timeline detailing the upcoming Rice Famine in China

Reason why China acquired Pork companies in USA

A. China’s restaurants feel the heat as pork supplies plunge

December 04, 2019 at 09:08AM

December 04, 2019 9:08 AM

BEIJING (REUTERS) - Mr Cao Xianli, the owner of a ‘ribs and rice’ restaurant in eastern China’s Qingdao city, is facing his biggest test in a decade of running the eatery.

Meanwhile, for those who missed the earlier recap of the Chinese presser, this is what was said:

CHINA: U.S. TO REMOVE TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS IN PHASES
CHINA: FIRST PHASE TRADE TALKS HAVE ACHIEVED MAJOR ADVANCEMENT
CHINA: THE DEAL WILL HELP BOOST GLOBAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
CHINA: WILL COMPLETE ASAP TRANSLATION, LEGAL REVIEW OF DEAL
CHINA: TO INCREASE IMPORTS FROM U.S. AND OTHERS
CHINA: SIDES AGREE TO COMPLETE LAST STAGES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
CHINA: WILL WORK TO SET A DATE FOR SIGNING DEAL
CHINA: HAS DECIDED TO CANCEL TARIFFS SCHEDULED TO TAKE EFFECT ON SUNDAY
CHINA: U.S. HAS PROMISED TO CANCEL ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON CHINESE PRODUCTS
Some details on agri products:

CHINA PLANS TO IMPORT U.S. WHEAT, RICE, CORN WITHIN QUOTAS
Yet the confusion grows because contrary to the US spin on the deal, China refuses any mention of boosting agri imports:

CHINA DIDN’T ANSWER QUESTION ON SIZE OF AG BUYS FROM U.S.
SOY, HOGS PARE GAINS; CHINA SAYS NO DETAILS YET ON AG IMPORTS
This confirms that China opposes any contractual agreement to boost US imports as that would put Chinese farmers at a disadvantage, and forcing Beijing to provide stimulus.

In conclusion:

CHINA: ARE TALKING ABOUT TIMING, PLACE, DETAILS OF SIGNING DEAL
It is unclear if both sides will sign their own version of what the deal says.

This is how we summarized the Chinese presser:

the December 15 tariffs will not be imposed, but existing tariffs will not be rolled back even though China says the US has “promised” to do so in phases. In other words, once again there is no actual Phase 1 deal, there is just an agreement to avoid a new round of tariffs with both sides making vague promises.

So to summarize again" there is no actual, enforceable deal. There is only a “deal” for public consumption, one that indicates both sides have promised to make unenforceable concessions, with no new tariffs imposed and Trump cutting the Sept 2019 tariffs in half from 15% to 7.5%.

Meanwhile, Trump has already hinted how he will levitate the market for the next year - by danging hope that Phase 2 is going great and will be completed any minute, even though China denied, saying that:

NEGOTIATIONS FOR PHASE TWO DEAL TO DEPEND ON IMPLEMENTATION OF PHASE ONE DEAL - CHINA VICE FINANCE MINISTER
So yes, anything to get stocks higher.

  Tyler Durden (https://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)

Fri, 12/13/2019 - 10:41
Tyler right again

B. Trade Bust? China Won’t Increase Grain Import Quotas Despite Promise To Buy More American

Trade Bust? China Won’t Increase Grain Import Quotas Despite Promise To Buy More American

        China has pledged to increase more purchases of U.S. farm goods but never confirmed the exact amount for the phase one trade agreement.

Han Jun, the vice-minister of agriculture and rural affairs, was quoted by Caixin on Tuesday as saying Beijing won’t increase its annual import quotas for wheat, corn, and rice, reported Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agriculture/china-wont-hike-grain-import-quotas-for-us-trade-deal-caixin-idUSKBN1Z608A).

This comes at a time when the Trump administration has pressured China to double its $24 billion pre-trade war purchases of U.S. farm goods to nearly $40 billion – a move that would serve as an election win for President Trump and help alleviate pressures on struggling Central and Midwest farmers.

Han is also part of the trade negotiating team, said last month that China would increase annual quotas on wheat, rice, and corn. But as of Tuesday, Han and the trade team have changed their minds saying the quotas “won’t adjust for one country.”

Refinitive data shows purchases of the three grains from the U.S. totaled around $534 million.

“Although there’s certainly types of high-quality wheat that China would look to import, maxing out the tariff rate quota would also weigh on domestic producers,” Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia analyst at INTL FCStone, said in a note Monday.

“China will be facing a tough balancing act of trying to satisfy the U.S. demands for large agriculture purchases, while also not hurting the rural population,” Friedrichs added.

Last month, we said with absolute certainty (https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-phase-one-trade-deal-impossible-one-chart) that China wouldn’t uphold the trade agreement. There’s just no way that China would increase U.S. farm good imports by 235% in 2020. It’s not just because China is protecting its domestic agricultural markets, but rather, it’s because Brazil and Argentina have ramped up shipments of grains to the Asian country.

Goldman Sachs points out in a recent note that any massive increase in Chinese purchases from the U.S. “would likely be hugely disruptive to global agriculture markets, primarily crowding out Argentine and Brazilian supplies that have taken substantial market share since 2017 due to the trade war and much weaker currencies.”

To get a sense of just how improbable such a surge in Chinese imports from the U.S. is, here is a visual representation of what this “disruptive increase” in U.S. agriculture exports to China would look like…

C. Boogaloo Intel
Basic protocols if it outbreaks in your country:

Get basic cheap supplies before the outbreak such as spray alcohol, hand sanitizer, nitrile gloves, n95 masks, sealed goggles, tyvek suits, rubber gloves and boots, duct tape, bleach or disinfectant mix.

At first use gloves and masks, after outbreak you can suit up more. Disinfect before entering your vehicle and when you get home by using hand sanitizer on your hands, phone, wrists, steering wheel, shifter, door handles, etc. All purchased items should be wiped down with alcohol or left in the vehicle for two days at least.

Be prepared to self isolate for at least two months. Even if you must go to work at least you won’t need to risk yourself by buying groceries. A good rule of thumb is a pound of food per person per day, less for rice and beans. Best foods to stock are rice, beans, bullion, canned veggies, dry pasta and sauces. Canned meat breaks the routine and offers more protein. Even if the outbreak isn’t severe, panic could wipe the shelves of your favorite foods. Make sure to get multivitamins to go with it.

Remember that China is worst case. It will be better in the west due to better hygiene. Many hospitals and most public spaces don’t have soap to use for hand washing. It’s the economic and social panic that causes the real damage.

If you do get infected, hospitals can prevent death from acute respiratory distress by flushing your lungs and providing anti virals. If it’s too late then tons of fluids and Mucinex is your best bet. Monitor your fever and be ready to intervene if it goes above 103. Obviously isolate yourself. It’s best to just not get it at all, as the true death rate hasn’t been established yet. Best guess is 15%, which will be different here in the west. Probably closer to 5% at first, then 10% if the hospitals get overloaded.

D. Rice Production must be tanking, probably a famine in coming in china. People who say that china still have they stores filled with stock. They make their own stock. They make their own rice , meat and etc. Singapore depends on only imports.

When other counties start banning us for import and export (we are ranked number 2 in the entire ranking), is too late.

E. Chinese Mainland Azazel Operative: I was warned about the virus on January 11 by family in China. I didn’t tell my wife anything. Said I need to do some shopping. Went to the box store and bought big bag of rice pasta, canned tomato etc. My heart was racing from the direct message I got from my in-laws and friends I china. But my acting was very calm. The store was still very well packed. No people there. The cashier was looking at me if I was crazy. But I stayed calm and made the right decisions

F. China provides rice to Thailand and Singapore, India sells to China usually but gov made a guarantee to give rice to 800 million people in their country so no rice for China.

G. Rice farmers pivoted to raise wild animals because there is more profit. That is the reason for the sense of urgency. Which means no more rice imports from Asia, explains why all Asian families invaded wholesale buying the last stock of 50 pounds bags.

H. In simple words there is no rice.

I. 1-All Asia will keep rice for their national market. I doubt there will be anything else to export. If USA farmers tend to their crops, last year forecast was a surplus and the reason why Trump was pushing China to buy our rice.

2-All depends the chain is not disrupted

3-If crops go to waste, then there is no surplus.

J. Rice farmers dropping crops to raise exotic animals
On Sunday, the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/74f1b26e-53c0-11ea-90ad-25e377c0ee1f) exposed how the scrutiny is putting pressure on farmers in the countryside as a wider economic slump reverberates through China’s economy.

Wang Zhilin used to eke out a living from rice farming in the central province of Jiangxi. Then she switched to a more lucrative trade - feeding China’s voracious appetite for exotic animals, the consumption of which many believe is at the root of the coronavirus outbreak.

“Raising wild animals is more profitable than growing crops,” said Ms Wang. She farms civet cats, a raccoon-like animal, and made a profit of Rmb50,000 ($7,140) last year by selling 33 full-grown animals - more than twice what she would have made from growing rice.

Parts of China have a tradition of consuming exotic wild animals as food or medicine, despite the implication of some species such as civet cats in the Sars epidemic 17 years ago. Now the animal trade’s suspected role in the deadly coronavirus outbreak has put the practice in the sights of China’s senior leadership. The executive body of the country’s parliament, is expected to review measures to curb the business on Monday.

“We must resolutely close and crack down on illegal wild animal market and trade,” President Xi Jinping said this month. “The bad habit of eating wildlife without limits must be abandoned.”

One of the ancillary consequences of China’s middle class income boom was a massive increase in demand for wild animals consumed in traditional medicine, and as traditional delicacies - dishes like the much hyped ‘bat soup’.

To be clear: The wildlife trade was illegal before the outbreak. If scientists do confirm that the outbreak truly did originate from the wet market in Wuhan, that would be like if Americans consuming fentanyl also got infected with a pneumonia-causing virus, inadvertently starting the outbreak.

Of course, now Beijing is promoting a narrative that the virus might have originated in the US, and that the wet market in Wuhan was part of some kind of elaborate set up, as the Global Times explained earlier. (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180429.shtml)

But as Beijing discouraged the trade in wildlife with one hand, banning hunting in some cases, it also encouraged the industry’s growth in select parts of the countryside, where the industry represented an important and lucrative component of the local economic base - yet another example of Beijing putting economic growth before the welfare of is own civilians.

These farms generated 56 billion Rmb in economic output in 2017, a fivefold jump from 9.6 billion 10 years earlier, according to the China Forestry Yearbook.

And as with any deregulated grey market, the criminals who run the space are more than willing to push the envelope, which they did in this case. Farms exploited the lack of scrutiny by capturing more animals in the wild instead of farming them.

“There is no way for wildlife farming to grow so fast in an organic manner,” said a Beijing-based scholar and policy adviser who declined to be named.

Technically, China only allows the trading and breeding of 54 wild animals, including, bizarrely, kangaroos and bamboo rats. But FT sources claim the list has been de facto expanded by local authorities in many areas.

But the economic incentive clearly bred corruption, as the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/74f1b26e-53c0-11ea-90ad-25e377c0ee1f) explains.

Zhou Jinfeng, secretary-general of the China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation, a non-profit organisation, said several hundred wild species - including many rare ones - were up for sale. “There is a general lack of regulation on wildlife farming and trade,” said Mr Zhou.

K. While China reportedly recovers from COVID-19 (the first wave, anyway), they are about to face another crisis.

“The State Party Committee [Chinese Communist Party]… must do everything possible to transfer and store all kinds of living materials such as grain, beef, mutton, oil and salt through various channels” states a leaked internal document from the CCP. The document also orders the “mobilization of the masses to consciously store grain and ensure that each household reserves between 3 and 6 months of grain for emergencies.” This is easier said than done, of course, as many stores report being sold out of rice and cooking oil.

Meanwhile, government officials tell their citizens not to prepare or worry. “Consumers have no need to worry about the shortage of food supplies and the sharp rise in prices. They don’t have to concentrate on buying bulk food at home,” says Wang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Consumer Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce.

This limited supply of food is due to the significant economic and agricultural barriers since the start of the year. With movement limited (if not prohibited altogether) to the tens of millions of workers under lockdown, it should be of surprise to no-one that there won’t be a surplus of food to be harvested this year.

One estimate puts the shortfall of fertilizer production alone at 40%. That’s a real shame for anyone looking to hold their government leaders responsible for the damage they’ve caused with their lies and inaction. :eyes:

https://archive.fo/7dPWs

L. Trump pressure to China acquiring USA grains surplus
Lyn Gon, [Apr 19, 2020 at 2:35:01 AM]:
Trade Bust? China Won’t Increase Grain Import Quotas Despite Promise To Buy More American

Trade Bust? China Won’t Increase Grain Import Quotas Despite Promise To Buy More American

        China has pledged to increase more purchases of U.S. farm goods but never confirmed the exact amount for the phase one trade agreement.

Han Jun, the vice-minister of agriculture and rural affairs, was quoted by Caixin on Tuesday as saying Beijing won’t increase its annual import quotas for wheat, corn, and rice, reported Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agriculture/china-wont-hike-grain-import-quotas-for-us-trade-deal-caixin-idUSKBN1Z608A).

This comes at a time when the Trump administration has pressured China to double its $24 billion pre-trade war purchases of U.S. farm goods to nearly $40 billion – a move that would serve as an election win for President Trump and help alleviate pressures on struggling Central and Midwest farmers.

Han is also part of the trade negotiating team, said last month that China would increase annual quotas on wheat, rice, and corn. But as of Tuesday, Han and the trade team have changed their minds saying the quotas “won’t adjust for one country.”

Refinitive data shows purchases of the three grains from the U.S. totaled around $534 million.

“Although there’s certainly types of high-quality wheat that China would look to import, maxing out the tariff rate quota would also weigh on domestic producers,” Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia analyst at INTL FCStone, said in a note Monday.

“China will be facing a tough balancing act of trying to satisfy the U.S. demands for large agriculture purchases, while also not hurting the rural population,” Friedrichs added.

Last month, we said with absolute certainty (https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-phase-one-trade-deal-impossible-one-chart) that China wouldn’t uphold the trade agreement. There’s just no way that China would increase U.S. farm good imports by 235% in 2020. It’s not just because China is protecting its domestic agricultural markets, but rather, it’s because Brazil and Argentina have ramped up shipments of grains to the Asian country.

Goldman Sachs points out in a recent note that any massive increase in Chinese purchases from the U.S. “would likely be hugely disruptive to global agriculture markets, primarily crowding out Argentine and Brazilian supplies that have taken substantial market share since 2017 due to the trade war and much weaker currencies.”

To get a sense of just how improbable such a surge in Chinese imports from the U.S. is, here is a visual representation of what this “disruptive increase” in U.S. agriculture exports to China would look like…

Breadcrumbs for a disaster.

M. India giving rice to 800 million people, no stock to export.

More importantly, the government will provide 800 million people, roughly two-thirds of the country’s population, with 5 kilograms of rice or wheat each month for the next three months for free.

“We do not want anyone to go hungry,” Sitharaman said.

Other measures announced include fast-tracking subsidies and benefits for farmers, construction workers, widows and the disabled as well as increasing the minimum wage. Workers under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, which guarantees 100 days of unskilled manual work per year, will see their wages rise by $26. Of course, like Russia and most other major countries at this point, India has also banned international flights.

Across the UK, as Britons trudge through their first full week of lockdown, more than half a million people in the UK have signed up as volunteers to support the NHS, according to the UK’s Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

NEWS: Fantastic that 560,000 people have now responded to our call to volunteer to support our NHS to defeat #Coronavirus (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw). Join us: https://t.co/gtYR6xW0jE pic.twitter.com/Ajvy31aa3y (https://t.co/Ajvy31aa3y)
— Matt Hancock (@MattHancock) March 26, 2020 (https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1243073019385384962?ref_src=twsrc^tfw)
Globally, the number of coronavirus cases topped 480k on Thursday, and at its current pace, will likely top 500k by Friday, according to Johns Hopkins data. The total number of cases in the US, at last check, was 69,197, a sliver behind Italy, leaving the US in third place globally for number of cases, and far lower down the rankings for number of deaths. The US has recorded 978 deaths as of Thursday morning, leaving behind Spain and France in terms of death toll.

The death toll in coronavirus-ravaged Spain continued to climb on Thursday, with more than 600 additional fatalities reported so far. In total, more than 4,000 people have been killed by the novel coronavirus in Spain so far. Only Italy has recorded more deaths during the outbreak, and only Spain and Italy have recorded more deaths than mainland China - though we suspect the US will join them soon enough.

There you have it folks