This was originally published on Medium dot com on February 17, 2020 and subsequently banned March 5th.
COVID-19, The Real Numbers, 34 Million Dead, Possibly
We know for a fact they are burning at least 735 bodies a day in Wuhan, they have 7 crematoriums and they can do 135 bodies each daily, but some of that is natural causes, so only 105 or so are COVID-19 deaths per crematorium. You can see Simone Gao’s YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-nv7j9HEgY for this information. This ignores off the books burnings and mass burials that are rumored to be going on. These would be: coal fired energy plants, mass graves, additional secret new crematoriums near or in the makeshift hospitals, etc. UPDATE: Beijing has sent 40 “mobile animal crematorium” trailers to Wuhan, capable of burning 5 tons of material a day.
Wuhan only represents 7% of officially reported Hubei cases, so we know the entire Hubei province is engulfed with the virus. At a bigger scale, Hubei represents 85% of all cases in China. The other 33 provinces (Yes, I include Taiwan, HK and other disputed areas for this exercise.) are just barely getting started with infections, but they are all infected nonetheless. The rough mortality rate now is about 2.7%, it’s probably higher but let’s settle for now.
So, you take 735 deaths a day times 25 days, divided by 7%, that give you a truer number of 262,500 deaths in Hubei. 262,500 divided by 2.7% extrapolates to 9 million infections in Hubei province, got it?
The other provinces combined only add up to ~1000 deaths so far, and just 4% of reported deaths. The other 33 provinces are just getting warmed up like I said. Remember that Hubei is 85% of official cases, but 96% of reported deaths so far. That tells us the reporting to date is bollocks, and you should not look at official data and accept it as gospel, but interpret it very creatively, very prudently and very intelligently.
This all sounds bad, but listen, Wuhan city alone is 11 million people and Hubei province is 57 million. So in reality, about 16% of Hubei is infected, and I expect the other provinces to catch up. I thought weighting less or more for rural vs. developed provinces, but actually, the average for provinces in China is about 40 million people and there really isn’t a lot of derivation from that. Very few of them are under 10K in population, and those are mostly islands like Hainan, HK and Macau. Only two are above 100K, Guangdong and Shandong. It’s basically all developed now except for 3 very lightly populated areas, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Tibet. So I think 16% infection for all of China is reasonable. It could be higher if they are really secretly burning or burying more bodies, it’s impossible to speculate how many though, so I don’t include it. But for all I know the infection rate could be 20, 30, 40%, who the hell knows besides the good ole CCP, the Chinese Communist Party. The pros say it’s very infectious indeed. Here’s another time a civilian gets it more right than all the pros!
Anyway at 16% of the population infected that means 217 million infections and 5.8 million deaths in China. I estimate it will take 3–4 more months for all those people to be wiped out.
It gets worse. The 2009 H1N1 virus also similarly infected 11 to 21 percent of the world, (The pros never found out how much, so that’s why you should trust me more, oops I digress.) but it wasn’t nearly as deadly, very low mortality, sub 1%, anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4. But this is at least 2.7%, maybe an even 3, would make the math easier. Getting to the point:
I rationalize that 1.24 BILLION people could get infected, and 34 million could die. Tokyo, the most populous city on the planet, is roughly 34 million.
Now for the hard parts. Probably mass quarantines and lockdowns only delay the inevitable. One negative is that they could keep the virus indefinitely part of the ecosystem, or have multiple waves like 1918, or making the seasonal flu more deadly, or having it conjoin genes with other strains and so on. H1N1 is supposedly that way, a chimera of the avian, pig, and other Influenza -A viruses of the time. The nightmares never end, do they? I theorize that quarantainment has to be 100% effective, or it backfires, based on cursory readings of Lancet, NEJM, CDC, Nextstrain, non-peer-reviewed medical preprint servers, vainglorious virological bulletin boards, all the blogs, all the YT, Wikipedia, et al. (Please don’t be Dr. DuckDuckGo like me, just do what I say, not what I do, okay? You don’t have the time or patience or grasp, sorry.)
It is best to work on your own immunity. Get regular sleep, unlike me. It is best to wash your hands before and after you touch ANYTHING, like me. Stock up a little extra on stuff you like but don’t go crazy. Get some exercise, stop freaking out! Take this as a sign to get your sh*t together.
Ok to freak you out, to the best of my knowledge, the most likely source was a bioweapons lab in Wuhan itself. Bioweapons need to be banned internationally immediately. They are clearly more dangerous even than nuclear weapons, climate change, Trump, or what have you. Ok, Monsanto is a close second and whatever the hell is this geoengineering stuff I don’t understand at all because you literally can’t study it at all.
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